The Squirmel

There was a time when John Zogby, Scott Rasmussen, The Gallup Oranization, and other influential pollsters could effectively predict the outcome of a political race days before the actual contest went down.  Over the last few major elections trends suggest that polling is becoming more and more imprecise.  Last night Hillary Clinton won the New Hampsire Primary after polls suggested an Obama trouncing was at hand.  What happened?  It is an important question to ask, because inacurate polling and the misuse of this information has a dangerous effect on our elections.  In 2000 and in 2004 the polls were well off base, but their predictions of landslide wins for George W. Bush in Florida and Ohio suppressed voter turnout and ultimately could have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  With our nation split so evenly politically, these minor gradations can turn entire elections. In ‘04 Ohio could have turned the election and with Bush beating John Kerry by a gnats eyelash, a nominally higher turnout in favor of Kerry could have tipped the election and then who knows where we would be?  With things like The War on Terror, Iraq, Katrina, and The Supreme Court in the balance a misread poll could really change the course of world history.  That might sound like hyperbole, but I don’t believe it is. So why have polls been losing their prescience?  Is it the internet?  The even political split of the nation? Changes in demographics?  What do you think?